Mar 2024 - Portfolio Self Driving (Supervised)
It has been a quiet month on my front as I have left my portfolio on autopilot, busy with work and closing on the house. But like the dividends that keeps ticking in, the news flow never stops. Expect news on Musk’s endeavors and Apple’s newfound troubles in this month’s investment journal.
Unlabeled on the chart:
In Consumer: Costco (1.5%)
In Healthcare: Xtrackers Genomic Healthcare Innovation (1.1%) & Novo Nordisk (1.3%)
Moves
No active moves were made this month.
Performance
My portfolio value decreased by 3.41% in the month of March, underperforming the Dow Jones World Index up 2.1%.
Dividend overview
| Name (Ticker) | Received | Amount (USD) |
| Visa (V) | Mar 4th | $5.15 |
| 3M (MMM) | Mar 13th | $14.85 |
| Microsoft (MSFT) | Mar 15th | $111.11 |
| Novo Nordisk (NOVO-B) | Mar 26th | $13.83 |
| Waste Management (WM) | Mar 29th | $3.74 |
| Total | Mar 2024 | $148.68 |
I received a total of $148.62 in dividends before taxes for March 2024, an increase of 12.07% compared to the same month last year at $132.61.
Commentary & Review
Three amazing feats in March by Musk and team
First, on March 14th, Musk’s team at SpaceX managed to bring the largest ever flying object into space, with the 5.000 ton Starship finally successfully lifting off (third time really is the charm!). This is a big deal in many ways, not least of all for Mars-colonization enthusiasts like me, but also because SpaceX will now be able to carry many more (and bigger!) Starlink satellites into orbit for improved coverage and utility. Well done! Although SpaceX is still a private company, one that I hope to be able to invest in one day. Or at the very least if they ever spin off Starlink for an IPO as previously discussed.
Second, on March 20th, Musk’s other private entity, Neuralink went live on X with Nolan, the first person through human trials, and the first person ever to have a Neuralink chip implanted in their brain. The now 29 year old quadriplegic, was paralyzed from the neck down in a diving accident 8 years ago, unable to move his arms or legs. With the chip implanted, Nolan showcased being able to control a mouse on a PC, using only his mind, to play strategy games such as Chess and Civilization VI. Incredible!
Third, on March 25th, it was revealed that with the newest version of the Tesla (TSLA) Full Self Driving Beta, V12.3, the software will now be enabled for every capable Tesla vehicle for a free one month trial. Along with this update, the name will change to Full Self Driving (Supervised) speculated to reflect that it is now ready for the average consumer (still under supervision, as indicated). This version should likewise pass all regulatory requirements for rolling out in the EU. This is a BIG DEAL, entirely underappreciated by the market and analysts. Auto-parking has been reenabled and footage is being shared on social media of the new end-to-end neural net being able to navigate incredibly tough situations, that have halted previous iterations of the software.
As you know, I have followed the development of FSD for a very long time. It has been quite the journey, including the software taking a few steps back, with the complete rewrite for version 11. This occurred as Tesla realized they had moved down the wrong path, trying to hard code every possible situation. But from version 11 onwards, the software became neural net based, with the AI doing all the work. Trained on millions of hours of real-life footage from Tesla vehicles, the software now simply figures out what to do, in real-time as it happens. But it looks like we are finally here - “the moment” feels just around the corner.
If you would like to hear my full thoughts on the state of Tesla stock right now, check out the latest NewDeal Invest Q&A I did with Mads Christiansen, where I was asked what has to happen for the stock to move. Around the 26:15 minute mark.
Apple having its 90s Microsoft anti-trust moment
On March 21st, The US Department of Justice sued Apple (AAPL) over maintaining an illegal monopoly over the smartphone market. Epic Games, Microsoft (MSFT) and others are jumping on the opportunity too, to make this worse. This was a long time coming, and in my personal opinion about time. People on the internet have been quick to criticize the lawsuit, defending Apple, saying they simply offer the best products.
But while this may be true to some extend, with Apple’s first parties services very user friendly and well designed, this does not mean that it should come to the detriment of third parties. One clear example is Apple Pay: I have no problem with the service being default on iPhones - but it should not be the only one. Apple denies all other software makers access to the NFC chip in their devices, for “security purposes”. This means that even if you wanted to, you simply could not offer a near-field payment alternative on the iPhone.
But as both Epic and Spotify (SPOT) have made recent strides in the EU against Apple, some parts of the lawsuit is already outdated. They remark Apple blocking cloud-streaming apps from the App Store, which is something the company has already backtracked. iMessage will also be adopting the RCS messaging standard later this year, for much improved compatibility with third parties.
This puts Apple (and investors) in an uncomfortable situation for at least the next couple of years, as the case is carried out. But do not be mistaken; this IS great new news for the consumer and not unlike what occurred in the late 90s with Microsoft souring the life of competitors as Windows and Internet Explore reigned surpreme.
Watch List
Changes to the Watch List this month: Removed Apple over increased regulatory uncertainty.
My Watch List sorts stock by sector and notes are included for each one, describing my interest and reservations. The status indicates the likelihood of a position being added to my portfolio. ‘Watching’ means I just keep an eye on them, whereas ‘Top Pick’ means they are very likely to find their way into my portfolio at one point - ‘Under consideration' means somewhere in between, with notes offering some elaborating thoughts. Please note my Watch List is based on my own research and goals and is in no way a recommendation of what to buy.
| Sector | Name (Ticker) | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Gubra (GUBRA) | Under consideration | Hidden gem, versatile, familiar, though unprofitable |
| Merck & Co (MRK) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity | |
| Medtronic (MDT) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity, attractive dividend | |
| Industrials/Manufacturing | DSV (DSV) | Watching | Interesting strategic M&A expansion, great execution, automation opportunity |
| Elkem (ELK) | Top Pick | Cyclical industry, but well positioned to break out | |
| Otis (OTIS) | Top Pick | Potential dividend growth play, familiar | |
| Norsk Hydro (NHY) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity, attractive dividend | |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | Watching | Ethical concerns, too expensive | |
| Corning (CLW) | Watching | Weakening moat, rising competition, familiar | |
| Consumer | McDonalds (MCD) | Watching | Strong brand, limited optionality |
| LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MOH) | Under consideration | Strong leadership, performance, too expensive | |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | Under consideration | Strong brand, stable giant, too concentrated, familiar | |
| PepsiCo (PEP) | Under consideration | Strong brand, well diversified, familiar | |
| Tapestry (TPR) | Under Consideration | Interesting recent acquisition, high debt, cheap | |
| Grab (GRAB) | Watching | Great business synergies, interesting market, unprofitable | |
| DoorDash (DASH) | Watching | Automation opportunity, strong marketshare, unprofitable | |
| Energy/Utilities | Ørsted (ORSTED) | Top Pick | Strong positioning, leadership, familiar |
| NextEra energy (NEE) | Watching | Strong position, too concentrated, too expensive | |
| Enphase Energy (ENPH) | Watching | Rising star, limited familiarity | |
| Technology | Embracer (EMBRAC-B) | Under consideration | Incredible acquisitions, not profitable, familiar |
| Sea (SE) | Watching | Core business weakening, innovator, just turned profitable | |
| Palantir (PLTR) | Watching | Amazing tech, highly dilutive, unprofitable, opaque | |
| Meta (META) | Watching | Strong leadership and userbase, undergoing big change | |
| Mercado Libre (MELI) | Watching | Great execution, growing market, too expensive | |
| Shopify (SHOP) | Watching | Innovator, well positioned, unprofitable | |
| Xiaomi (1810) | Watching | Fast innovator, China risk, previously owned | |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Watching | Strong brand and leadership, too expensive, previously owned | |
| Finance | Coinbase (COIN) | Under consideration | Strong brand and leadership, unprofitable, previously owned |
| BlackRock (BLK) | Under consideration | Strong execution, exposed to the economy, attractive dividend | |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | Watching | Strong leadership, innovator, unprofitable | |
| NuBank (NU) | Watching | Great execution, interesting market opportunity | |
| JP Morgan Chase (JP) | Watching | Stable giant, overlapping industry with holding | |
| Manulife Financial (MFC) | Watching | Stable giant, attractive dividend, limited familiarity |
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, the opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own – always invest at your own risk.
