Nov 2024 - A changing world
November has been quite the month and one the strongest months I have ever been through performance wise. Despite trailing well below the market all year, I am now solidly ahead of it. But the world is changing and so will my portfolio going forward. In this investment journal entry I will share plans for several future investments as well as my thoughts on Trump’s America.
Moves
No active moves were made this month.
Performance
My portfolio value increased by 17.88%, massively outperforming the Dow Jones World Index up just 3.31% in the same period.
Dividend overview
| Name (Ticker) | Received | Amount (USD) |
| Costco (COST) | Nov 18th | $3.46 |
| AbbVie (ABBV) | Nov 18th | $15.43 |
| Total | Nov 2024 | $18.89 |
I received a total of $18.89 in dividends before taxes for November 2024, down 79.87% compared to the same month last year at $93.86.
Commentary & Review
No comeback for Harris
“If I was a betting man, my money would be on Harris.” is how I ended last month’s journal update. Thankfully I am not - I am an investor. One at that, benefitting greatly from a Trump victory. At least in the short term. With Elon Musk, Trump’s right hand man, now de facto in charge of a central government department, administrating all others, and a good 1/3 of my holdings made up of Tesla (TSLA), my portfolio boomed in November.
Tesla’s unfair advantage
The Department of Government Efficiency (not coincidently abbreviated DOGE, like the meme-crypto coin Elon holds) will for the next 2 years decide what government programs deserve future funding or not. This gives Tesla (and SpaceX or really any other Musk company) an advantage in avoiding bureaucracy, regulation and perhaps even an ability to stifle competition. Musk is already out on X complaining about the inefficiencies of competitor-in-space Lockheed Martin (LMT) - specifically about the F35 - hinting at measures being taken. I do not find this particularly fair - although I am supportive of cutting deadweight in the public sector in general and find the concept of DOGE quite fascinating. I hope it succeeds in bringing government spending in check and improve the ability to innovate and compete.
The greatest opportunity here lies naturally in approval of/removal of red tape against self-driving cars more broadly on the road, which in my opinion is the only thing standing the way of Tesla’s FSD to completely dominate the future of transportation. Tesla actually managed to release a new version of FSD - V13.2 right before the November deadline. Early reports and feedback have been outstanding, with new system capabilities including reversing, parking and much more. Happy to see Tesla finally return to a fair valuation after a few years in the dumps.
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Adapting to a new global reality
With Trump soon in office, we face a new global reality. The US now, much like the EU, will seek protectionism - anti-globalization, if you will. Trump is likely to impose tall tariffs, push for tougher immigration policies, and pull away from global collaborations of various kinds. Frankly, I find “Trump’s America” unsettling, and I’m hugely concerned about the long-term for all of the Western World. Europe is already struggling, both economically and stability-wise, with government breakups and the ongoing war for Ukraine.
Trump winning even the popular vote, has made it clear what direction the West is moving in. And it is one that I disagree with. I find it backward and a loser’s strategy, much like when the EU calls it “competing on unfair grounds” when consumers choose Chinese EVs over German ones, because they are better - the answer should not be to block outside competition (through tariffs), but rather to be curious on what the competition is doing right and learn from it.
I have put a lot of thought into what I would do, if things turned out this way, over the past couple of months: First and foremost, I will diversify away from America (and Europe). I have talked quite a bit about Southeast Asia, as a growing opportunity in earlier journal updates. A region with a growing population with many people coming online now for the first time. But South America now has my attention too. I am looking to invest in Sea (SE) and potentially Grab (GRAB) in Southeast Asia, with Nubank (NU) and potentially Mercado Libre (MELI) in South America. On the flip side, I might look to invest in players that might benefit from a more authoritarian America - Specifically, I am thinking of Palantir (PTLR) which despite its current high valuation, stands to grow even larger and more powerful under this regime. And perhaps a little surprising - Meta (META) too. Why? Even though Zuckerberg and Trump are enemies, it ties well into the same surveillance/data tracking angle of the former pick. Additionally, further limitations on competitor TikTok may benefit the case. Lockheed would also made my short-list had it not been for my worry that Musk might try to make life difficult for his competitors. He, however, will be funding these investments for me, as I plan on trimming my position in Tesla further in the new year, as valuation has once again reached fair levels.
Unity on the mend
In other news, Unity (U) has been skyrocketing over the course of the month, up nearly 30% out of the blue. That is despite the stock tumbling following earnings. In my humble opinion, the report was actually fine - although exceptionally boring (once again). New management is clearly making moves behind the scenes, but they are entirely unwilling to share any concrete details on the numbers. While we do not know what is driving this recent rally, here are two running theories of mine:
The good one: Unity finally managed to rebuild its ad monetization algorithm to finally start competing properly with AppLovin (APP). This development may have been shared internally leading to a large amount of insider buys. If this the case, we will see a new era of Unity with its two business units in positive reinforcement once again.
The bad one: Unity has been approached for acquisition by some other player, due to its current low valuation and earnings growth. Most likely, someone like AppLovin has expressed interest in the past. While Unity would fit great into their business, I do not however, believe that any of the Magnificent Seven, like Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), or Meta are in a position to approach them due to regulation. Through Unity, they would instantly capture over half of the game development market and grow far too powerful. If this is the case, much future potential for Unity shareholders would be lost and the company’s temporary weakness would have cost them everything.
I am glad I picked up some more shares right around when the stock bottomed out around $15 and I continue to be bullish on the future of RT3D.
Watch List
Changes to the Watch List
Upgraded Grab and Lockheed Martin from Watching to Under consideration. Upgraded Mercado Libre from Watching to Top Pick.
About
My Watch List sorts stock by sector and notes are included for each one, describing my interest and reservations. The status indicates the likelihood of a position being added to my portfolio. ‘Watching’ means I just keep an eye on them, whereas ‘Top Pick’ means they are very likely to find their way into my portfolio at one point - ‘Under consideration' means somewhere in between, with notes offering some elaborating thoughts. Please note my Watch List is based on my own research and goals and is in no way a recommendation of what to buy.
| Sector | Name (Ticker) | Status | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | Gubra (GUBRA) | Under consideration | Hidden gem, versatile, familiar, though unprofitable |
| Merck & Co (MRK) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity | |
| Medtronic (MDT) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity, attractive dividend | |
| Industrials/Manufacturing | DSV (DSV) | Watching | Interesting strategic M&A expansion, great execution, automation opportunity |
| Elkem (ELK) | Watching | Cyclical industry, but well positioned to break out | |
| Otis (OTIS) | Under consideration | Potential dividend growth play, familiar | |
| Norsk Hydro (NHY) | Watching | Casual interest, limited familiarity, attractive dividend | |
| Lockheed Martin (LMT) | Under consideration | Ethical concerns, too expensive | |
| Corning (CLW) | Watching | Weakening moat, rising competition, familiar | |
| Consumer | McDonalds (MCD) | Watching | Strong brand, limited optionality |
| LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MOH) | Under consideration | Strong leadership, performance, too expensive | |
| Coca-Cola (KO) | Under consideration | Strong brand, stable giant, too concentrated, familiar | |
| PepsiCo (PEP) | Under consideration | Strong brand, well diversified, familiar | |
| Sea (SE) | Top Pick | Core business weakening, innovator, just turned profitable | |
| Grab (GRAB) | Under consideration | Great business synergies, interesting market, unprofitable | |
| DoorDash (DASH) | Watching | Automation opportunity, strong marketshare, unprofitable | |
| Energy/Utilities | Ørsted (ORSTED) | Watching | Strong positioning, leadership, familiar |
| NextEra energy (NEE) | Watching | Strong position, too concentrated, too expensive | |
| Technology | Palantir (PLTR) | Top Pick | Amazing tech, highly dilutive, opaque |
| Meta (META) | Top Pick | Strong leadership and userbase, undergoing big change | |
| Mercado Libre (MELI) | Top Pick | Great execution, growing market, too expensive | |
| Shopify (SHOP) | Watching | Innovator, well positioned, unprofitable | |
| Xiaomi (1810) | Watching | Fast innovator, China risk, previously owned | |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | Watching | Strong brand and leadership, too expensive, previously owned | |
| Finance | Coinbase (COIN) | Under consideration | Strong brand and leadership, unprofitable, previously owned |
| BlackRock (BLK) | Under consideration | Strong execution, exposed to the economy, attractive dividend | |
| SoFi Technologies (SOFI) | Watching | Strong leadership, innovator, unprofitable | |
| NuBank (NU) | Top Pick | Great execution, interesting market opportunity | |
| JP Morgan Chase (JP) | Watching | Stable giant, overlapping industry with holding | |
| Manulife Financial (MFC) | Watching | Stable giant, attractive dividend, limited familiarity |
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, the opinions expressed in this article are entirely my own – always invest at your own risk.
